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SB – Pats; GOP – McCain; Dems – Clinton leads but race continues

February 3, 2008 am29 9:35 am

Back a few weeks ago I thought I would only occasionally mention the elections. But Super Tuesday is coming, and the math is interesting.

First, Super Bowl. I’ve been a Giants fan for a long, long time. But they had their close game already, that’s past. New England 32 – 21, and not that close with the Giants scoring late. I’ll be rooting for the upset, but I don’t think so.

Next, Republicans. McCain took Florida, numbers are surging, Huckabee is splitting southern votes with Romney. McCain will take winner-take-all states: New York, Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, his home state of Arizona, maybe Missouri. He’ll lead in most others, and end Tuesday night with a massive delegate lead. I was calling 550 – 400 – 220 just a week ago, but Florida, Delaware, picking up Giuliani’s support, and a general surge will put it at more like 700 – 300 – 250. His opponents might limp on for another few weeks, but more likely just a few days. I’ll run the numbers in a follow-up post.

On the Democratic side, it is worth remembering that Obama has won or tied (in delegates) each state up until now: Iowa 16-15, New Hampshire 9-9, Nevada 13-12, South Carolina 25-12. Hillary has a lead in superdelegates, in momentum, and in Tuesday’s polls. Barring a last minute surge, she will take a large delegate lead, but not enough to win the race. I’ll run the numbers in a follow-up, but she’ll take about 60-65% and go up around 1450 – 950? The race could continue until Texas March 4, or even Pennsylvania April 22.

6 Comments leave one →
  1. andy permalink
    February 3, 2008 pm29 9:31 pm 9:31 pm

    If Obama turns out his voters like he has in the early states, I think he could win a lot more delegates than you’re guessing, especially in states like CA and NY where Clinton is really just going to run up her popular vote lead in a handful of districts. At any rate, you’re right that Hillary has a lead, but I think Obama has the momentum (just look at the national polls over the last couple weeks). I think “Clinton fatigue” has been setting in ever since Iowa, and it’s only going to grow the longer the race stays competitive. Plus after Tuesday, the race goes back to much more of a state-by-state fight, which we’ve already seen tends to favor Obama. If she doesn’t put him away on Tuesday, she should be worried.

  2. February 3, 2008 pm29 9:34 pm 9:34 pm

    I’m going to stick to numbers and let others analyze them. One problem is deciding how to model the results. I do not have access to district by district numbers, nor do I know the allocation methods/rules in most states. So give me a few hours, and this evening we’ll see how closely I’m sticking to the 1450 – 950 projection.

    In any case, I do not think this is over, not even close.

  3. andy permalink
    February 3, 2008 pm29 10:07 pm 10:07 pm

    Not being critical by the way, just discussing. :)

    The other thing working against Hillary is, frankly, the media is strongly on Obama’s side. You can already see them setting up the storyline for Tuesday if she wins but doesn’t win big – trend has been towards Obama for weeks; he just didn’t have enough time; he did better than expected in CA (assuming those polls hold up); etc. The expectations game is silly, but I think anything less than a 60-40 split is probably a loss for her.

  4. February 4, 2008 am29 7:44 am 7:44 am

    I really hope you didn’t bet any money …

  5. February 4, 2008 am29 7:58 am 7:58 am

    Man, it feels good to be wrong about that one. Even early on, just not the game I expected. Not at all.

    No boxes this year, but I’d never put down more than a ten. Of course I’ve tossed in a lot more than that for wings and strange snacks… that can be a real gamble…


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