NYC Primary Odds as the polls close June 23 2026
June 23, 2026 pm30 8:59 pm
As the polls close the betting markets have moved – but not decisively. Here’s what they show.
NYC has more real congressional primaries, real ones, than I can ever recall. 6, 7, 10, 12, 13, 15.
Gamblers are putting money on who they think the winners will be. In 6 (and 10) and 15 they see now contest. But while they see favorites in the others, those are not at 95%
These reflect how bettors are betting. Like making Vegas-style bets on the winner. These are NOT opinion polls. And this includes 11th hour money.
| NY-7 | Reynoso | Valdez | Won |
| Kalshi | 18% | 79% | 0.2% |
| NY-10 | Goldman (incumbent) | Lander |
| Kalshi | 1% | 99% |
| NY-12 | Bores | Conway | Lasher | Schlossberg |
| Kalshi | 25% | …. | 77% | 0.7% |
| NY-13 | Chevalier | Espaillat (incumbent) |
| Kalshi | 26% | 74% |
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JD2718 
Pretty remarkable results for DSA.
It’s going to turn out that they have “territory” that they will do well in – most districts they will not venture into. But their territory may be substantially larger than I thought – probably larger than most of them thought.
Beyond the “Woo Hoo! We did it” will come the “What did we just do? How much more can we do?”
The next cycle, 2028 (no NY elections in 2027) – how much wider will they campaign?
And this cycle, 2026 – their races are slam dunks. Will they get involved in some of the other races? There will certainly be some competitive contests in November. I’m not sure if that’s part of their strategy at this point.