NYC Primary Odds June 8 2026
New York 6. New York 7. New York 10. New York 12. New York 13. New York 15.
These reflect how bettors are betting. Like making Vegas-style bets on the winner. These are NOT opinion polls.
Four of these six (6, 10, 13, 15) involve incumbents – one is trailing, one is in a tight race, and two maybe hanging on. And for those four races, AIPAC (backing the incumbent) is a major issue. It’s not just Palestine – it’s progressive vs centrist, Mahmdani vs Cuomo, AOC/Bernie vs Schumer.
| NY-6 | Meng (incumbent) | Park | Xiong |
| Polymarket | 88% | 10% | 1% |
| Kalshi | 85% | 15% | < 1% |
NYSUT endorsed Meng.
| NY-7 | Reynoso | Valdez | Won |
| Polymarket | 29% | 69% | 4% |
| Kalshi | 28% | 72% | 5% |
NYSUT endorsed Reynoso. This one is WFP vs DSA. WFP endorsed Reynoso. Mamdani endorsed Valdez.
| NY-10 | Goldman (incumbent) | Lander |
| Polymarket | 4% | 96% |
| Kalshi | 5% | 93% |
WFP endorsed Lander. Mamdani endorsed Lander.
I’ll take the moment to remind readers that the UFT claimed to have made an endorsement in CD-10, but never submitted the decision to the Delegate Assembly for ratification. Breaking the rules is bad. Backing a loser can be bad. But cheating to back a loser? Not really impressive.
| NY-12 | Bores | Conway | Lasher | Schlossberg |
| Polymarket | 41% | 2% | 53% | 9% |
| Kalshi | 43% | 3% | 57% | 7% |
NYSUT endorsed Bores. Teachers do not like Lasher and his associations with school reform and Bloomberg. But no one exciting here.
| NY-13 | Chevalier | Espaillat (incumbent) | Miller | Romero |
| Polymarket | 54% | 42% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Kalshi | 55% | 45% |
NYSUT endorsed Espaillat. Mamdani endorsed Darializa Avila Chevalier. New York Progressive Action Network switched their endorsement to Chevalier.
| NY-15 | Blake | Nemorin | Torres (incumbent) |
| Polymarket | 2% | 9% | 87% |
| Kalshi | 3% | 70% |
NYSUT endorsed Torres.
JD2718 