NYC Primary Odds June 18 2026

NYC has more real congressional primaries, real ones, than I can ever recall. There’s not a lot of polling, but there are betting markets, which is what I am looking at here. 6, 7, 10, 12, 13, 15.

Ten days ago I wrote:

Four of these six (6, 10, 13, 15) involve incumbents – one is trailing, one is in a tight race, and two maybe hanging on. And for those four races, AIPAC (backing the incumbent) is a major issue. It’s not just Palestine – it’s progressive vs centrist, Mamdani vs Cuomo, AOC/Bernie vs Schumer.

Gamblers are putting money on who they think the winners will be. They think Lander is going to beat Goldman (incumbent) in 10. They think Meng (6) and Torres (15) will hold on against progressive challengers. They are leaning towards Claire Valdez in 7, although not giving up on Antonio Reynoso, not yet (no incumbent in this race). That leaves 12, vacated by Nadler, where there’s some shift in more bets going towards Lasher, but Bores still receiving lots of support.

And that leaves CD-13, where gamblers are equally divided between incumbent Adriano Espaillat and progressive challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier,

These reflect how bettors are betting. Like making Vegas-style bets on the winner. These are NOT opinion polls.

NY-6	Meng (incumbent)	Park
Polymarket	92%	8%
Kalshi	94%	12%

NYSUT endorsed Meng. 10 days ago it was 88-10 and 85-15

NY-7	Reynoso	Valdez	Won
Polymarket	20%	81%	1%
Kalshi	23%	80%	0.8%

NYSUT endorsed Reynoso. This one is WFP vs DSA. WFP endorsed Reynoso. Mamdani endorsed Valdez. Markets are shifting towards Valdez, (10 days ago it was about 30 – 70) but there is still some money on Reynoso.

NY-10	Goldman (incumbent)	Lander
Polymarket	2%	98%
Kalshi	1.9%	98.9%

WFP endorsed Lander. Mamdani endorsed Lander. The bettors think this one is over.

This is still true: the UFT claimed to have made an endorsement in CD-10, but never submitted the decision to the Delegate Assembly for ratification. Breaking the rules is bad. Backing a loser can be bad. But cheating to back a loser? Not really impressive.

NY-12	Bores	Conway	Lasher	Schlossberg
Polymarket	33%	<1%	64%	1%
Kalshi	36%	0.5%	64%	3%

NYSUT endorsed Bores. Teachers do not like Lasher and his associations with school reform and Bloomberg. But no one exciting here. I thought the Kennedy in the race was supposed to make this one interesting?

NY-13	Chevalier	Espaillat (incumbent)
Polymarket	47%	46%
Kalshi	51%	50%

NYSUT endorsed Espaillat. Mamdani endorsed Darializa Avila Chevalier. New York Progressive Action Network switched their endorsement to Chevalier. This is the tightest race (according to the bettors) in NYC, with the favorite shifting several times in the last week.

NY-15	Blake	Torres (incumbent)
Polymarket	2%	98%
Kalshi	8%	93.3%

NYSUT endorsed Torres. Bettors think this one is done. That’s a shame.