Super Tuesday GOP delegates (48 hour update)

(I wrote this late Saturday, but the host of Sunday morning polls forced adjustments. Not dramatic, just trends carrying forward. On the Republican side they mostly favor a bigger McCain victory. On the Democratic side they are jumbled , but Hillary will still carry the vast majority of states).

Predictions for Super Tuesday, February 6, based on latest polls. Caveat – today Huckabee ticked up in the Border, and Romney in the West. This thing could still swing.

McCain 750, Romney 360, Huckabee 160

Predictions: Post-Tuesday, McCain leads with 680 730 750, Romney with 300 360, Huckabee 250 180 160. Almost 1200 are needed for nomination. A week ago when I had McCain at 540, I thought the race might drag. But these numbers are enough to stop Romney from pouring more $$$ down his rathole of a campaign, and him and Huckabee will drop within the week.

Methodology:

1. More than one poll from the last week? Average them; if not,
2. More than one poll from the last month? Weight them; if not,
3. My guess ***

Winner-take-all states: McCain: New York, 101; New Jersey, 52; Connecticut, 30; Delaware, 18; Arizona, 53; Missouri, 58; Romney: Utah, 36; Montana, 25.

Detailed table (and more explanation) below the fold –>

In other states, I allocated based on poll percentages, using a modified proportional methodology, with creative remainders.

I counted only candidates with 15% or more, subtracted 15% from each, and allocated proportionately. Any unaccounted for delegates I arbitrarily assigned… This awards more delegates to the winner, and is a not-so-terrible model of what actually happens.

Eg, a state at 35% Huckabee, 30% Romney, 25% McCain, with 40 delegates, instead of proportional 15, 14, 11, look at 20%, 15%, 10% (out of 45%), yielding 18, 13, 9. A more extreme example, McCain 60%, Romney 25%, Huckabee 10%, would allocate based on 45%, 10%, 0%, and out of 40 instead of 25, 11, 4, would be 33, 7, 0.