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Super Tuesday GOP delegates (48 hour update)

February 3, 2008 pm29 7:46 pm

(I wrote this late Saturday, but the host of Sunday morning polls forced adjustments. Not dramatic, just trends carrying forward. On the Republican side they mostly favor a bigger McCain victory. On the Democratic side they are jumbled , but Hillary will still carry the vast majority of states).

Predictions for Super Tuesday, February 6, based on latest polls. Caveat – today Huckabee ticked up in the Border, and Romney in the West. This thing could still swing.

McCain 750, Romney 360, Huckabee 160

Predictions: Post-Tuesday, McCain leads with 680 730 750, Romney with 300 360, Huckabee 250 180 160. Almost 1200 are needed for nomination. A week ago when I had McCain at 540, I thought the race might drag. But these numbers are enough to stop Romney from pouring more $$$ down his rathole of a campaign, and him and Huckabee will drop within the week.

Methodology:

  1. More than one poll from the last week? Average them; if not,
  2. More than one poll from the last month? Weight them; if not,
  3. My guess ***

    Winner-take-all states: McCain: New York, 101; New Jersey, 52; Connecticut, 30; Delaware, 18; Arizona, 53; Missouri, 58; Romney: Utah, 36; Montana, 25.

    Detailed table (and more explanation) below the fold –>

    In other states, I allocated based on poll percentages, using a modified proportional methodology, with creative remainders.

    I counted only candidates with 15% or more, subtracted 15% from each, and allocated proportionately. Any unaccounted for delegates I arbitrarily assigned… This awards more delegates to the winner, and is a not-so-terrible model of what actually happens.

    Eg, a state at 35% Huckabee, 30% Romney, 25% McCain, with 40 delegates, instead of proportional 15, 14, 11, look at 20%, 15%, 10% (out of 45%), yielding 18, 13, 9. A more extreme example, McCain 60%, Romney 25%, Huckabee 10%, would allocate based on 45%, 10%, 0%, and out of 40 instead of 25, 11, 4, would be 33, 7, 0.

    state delegates Romney McCain Huckabee
    current 192 59 93 40
    California** 173 74 99 0
    New York 101* 0 101 0
    Georgia 72 16 32 24
    Illinois 70 18 51 1
    Missouri 58* 0 58 0
    Tennessee 55 12 26 17
    Arizona 53* 0 53 0
    New Jersey 52* 0 52 0
    Alabama 48 3 27 18
    Colorado 46 33 11 2
    Massachusetts 43 32 11 0
    Minnesota 41 3 30 8
    Oklahoma 41 4 27 10
    Utah 36* 36 0 0
    Arkansas*** 34 2 6 26
    Connecticut 30* 0 30 0
    West Virginia 30 6 10 14
    Alaska*** 29 20 6 3
    North Dakota*** 26 19 7 0
    Montana*** 25* 25 0 0
    Delaware*** 18* 0 18 0
    new total 1273 362 748 163
    2 Comments leave one →
    1. Anonymous permalink
      February 8, 2008 am29 9:54 am 9:54 am

      biased.

    2. February 9, 2008 am29 6:48 am 6:48 am

      Of course.

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