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Super Tuesday, Democratic (36 hour update)

February 4, 2008 am29 9:12 am

(Note to readers, if these projections are lousy, I will stop writing these posts. Promise).

Predictions for tomorrow, Super Tuesday, based on latest polls.

Hillary will win most states and most of the votes. She will win more delegates than Obama (for the first time this campaign!)

But she will not knock Obama out of the race. Nor will a late surge in his favor knock Hillary out. There is at least a month left, maybe two or three. Even if I am off by 200 delegates, big swing, the race continues.

Projection: Clinton will win delegates 1080 – 980 Tuesday

Projection: Clinton wins 17 states – Obama 5

New lead: 165 delegates (1339 – 1174)

Pundits will look for who exceeds or fails to meet expectations. Instead, the race is about delegates. Will Hillary take a big enough lead that she can stay ahead as Obama wins one at a time through the Spring? Or maybe that scenario is off? Whatever, we won’t know the answers tomorrow.

Recent polls only, or *best guesses. I apportion proportionately, after subtracting 15% from each (this will tilt things a bit to the leader).

Click for projected percents and delegates

Eg, a state at 50% Obama, 35% Clinton, and, say, 50 delegates. Instead of a straight apportionment (29-21) I reduce the percentages to 35% – 20% and apportion at 32-18. A more extreme example, Clinton 60%, Obama 25%, instead of 35-15, reduce the percents to 45 and 10, and apportion at 41-9.

The left two columns are percents from current polls, or my best guess. The right two columns are projected delegates.

state Clinton Obama Clinton Obama
current     259 190
California 41 43 208 233
New York 53 35 184 97
Illinois 24 57 33 152
New Jersey 47 39 73 54
Massachusetts 50 35 77 44
Georgia 35 50 37 66
Minnesota** 40 33 51 37
Missouri 46 42 47 41
Tennessee 50 34 55 30
Arizona 44 40 36 31
Alabama 45 42 32 28
Connecticut 43 46 28 32
Colorado** 32 34 34 37
Arkansas* 50 34 30 17
Oklahoma 42 18 42 5
Kansas* 43 38 23 18
New Mexico* 44 40 21 17
Utah* 50 30 20 9
Delaware* 45 35 14 9
Idaho* 40 35 13 10
North Dakota* 40 35 12 9
Alaska* 40 35 10 8
new total

1339 1174

* best guess

** stale data (includes Edwards)

3 Comments leave one →
  1. February 4, 2008 pm29 2:42 pm 2:42 pm

    I’ve been following this. It’ll be interesting, that’s for sure.

  2. Anonymous permalink
    February 5, 2008 am29 3:52 am 3:52 am

    I hope with all my heart, especially with the media saying that Obama has the momentum, that your data is correct. Fasten your seatbelts, its gonna be a thriller!

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