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UFT elections: Unity’s shrinking vote totals

May 6, 2013 am31 5:23 am

There is no way to sugarcoat the results – Unity’s vote totals fell hard in the 2013 elections. Worse for the ruling caucus, despite an uptick in 2010, this follows an equally dramatic drop in 2007.

 Elem IS/JHS HS Functional Retired
2004  9,757  2,794  2,893  8,464  18,067
2007  6,252  1,499  2,183  6,464  18,864
2010  7,761  1,981  2,595  7,337  20,744
2013  5,111  1,185  1,592  5,167  18,155

Retiree totals for Unity are flat:

Unity Retiree votes

But totals in each in-service division show sharp downward trends:

Unity HS and IS votes

Unity Elementary and Functional Votes

A friend suggested this reflects decreasing numbers of teachers with tenure – that tenured people probably vote Unity in the same proportion as years ago. This seems possible, as a contributing cause, but easy to overstate. The totals (below) suggest that people who used to vote Unity stopped.

Subtotals and totals:

Teacher Inservice Grand
Subtotal Subtotal Total
2004  15,444  23,908  41,975
2007  9,934  16,398  35,262
2010  12,337  19,674  40,418
2013  7,888  13,055  31,210

Ten thousand in service members stopped voting Unity, or retired. But their number of retiree votes did not go up. Any analysis points in one direction: Unity has not replaced significant numbers of the votes it has lost.

How dramatic are the drops?

Unity vote percentage drop by division 2004 – 2013

2004 2013 % Change
Elementary  9,757  5,111 -48%
IS/JHS/MS  2,794  1,185 -58%
High School  2,893  1,592 -45%
Teacher Subtotal  15,444  7,888 -49%
Functional  8,464  5,167 -39%
In Service Subtotal  23,908  13,055 -45%
Retirees  18,067  18,155 0%
Grand Total  41,975  31,210 -26%

Remember that this has occurred while the non-Unity vote has stayed small, but fairly constant. (Despite votes flipping this election from New Action to MORE, or last election from ICE/TJC to New Action)

My guess is that Unity doesn’t care much, as long as they win. And despite the dramatic looking numbers, they are not close to losing.

(note:  I am not certain if all retiree numbers are reported as non-weighted. Weighting can change the percentages in the grand total only)

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5 Comments leave one →
  1. May 6, 2013 am31 6:01 am 6:01 am

    tk but i need to see the official result in the ny teacher edition

    Date: Mon, 6 May 2013 09:24:10 +0000 To: fsmedu@msn.com

    • May 7, 2013 am31 8:19 am 8:19 am

      There will be an official report to the UFT Exec Board on May 20. I don’t know how detailed the results that will be published in the New York Teacher will be.

  2. May 13, 2013 am31 9:57 am 9:57 am

    When did the US schools started geometric proofs in two column?
    I grew up writing my proofs in paragraph forms, letting the thought process take its course. There was a natural flow of ratiocination in this presentation.

Trackbacks

  1. UFT Elections – Sitting at the Count | JD2718
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