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Super Tuesday GOP delegates

January 27, 2008 am31 11:28 am

Just predictions based on latest polls. Florida is Tuesday, Maine is Friday, the rest are Tuesday, February 5.

My totals are, when we wake up February 6, McCain leads with 550, followed by Romney with 400 and Huckabee with 200. Through systematic errors I have Giuliani with 62. Overestimate, probably. Almost 1200 are needed for nomination, so, were I correct, the race would continue in earnest.

* = winner take all
** = Thompson still leads in Tennessee; Paul is in double digits in Georgia
Close calls in winner-take-all states: Florida, Missouri, New Jersey

Methodology:

  1. If there are more than one poll from the last week, their average weighted to later in the week; if not,
  2. If there are more than one poll from January, their average, weighted to the most recent; if not,
  3. If there is any poll, the most recent; if not,
  4. My guess ***

    In winner-take-all states, the winner takes all. In other states, I allocated based on poll percentages, not counting candidates who dropped out or with single digit polls. This probably overcounts delegates for candidates running 3rd or 4th, but with 10 – 20%.

    Detailed table below the fold –>

    state delegates Romney McCain Huckabee Giuliani
    current 140 59 36 40 1
    Maine *** 21 9 8 3 1
    Florida 57* 57 0 0 0
    California 173 43 72 29 29
    New York 101* 0 101 0 0
    Georgia** 72 13 16 27 9
    Illinois 70 19 29 10 12
    Missouri 58* 0 58 0 0
    Tennessee** 55 0 11 22 0
    Arizona 53* 0 53 0 0
    New Jersey 52* 0 52 0 0
    Alabama 48 9 19 20 0
    Colorado *** 46 26 12 4 4
    Massachusetts 43 27 16 0 0
    Minnesota *** 41 17 11 13 0
    Oklahoma 41 4 15 16 6
    Utah *** 36* 36 0 0 0
    Arkansas *** 34 2 6 26 0
    Connecticut 30* 0 30 0 0
    West Virginia *** 30 6 10 14 0
    Alaska *** 29 20 6 3 0
    North Dakota *** 26 19 7 0 0
    Montana *** 25* 25 0 0 0
    Deleware *** 18* 18 0 0 0
    new total 1299 409 568 227
    62
    3 Comments leave one →
    1. January 27, 2008 pm31 7:06 pm 7:06 pm

      I just found a Colorado poll. I would have adjusted my 26/12/4/4 to 24/13/9/0, not a big swing.

    2. karen permalink
      February 1, 2008 pm29 9:28 pm 9:28 pm

      what is Super Tuesday about? seriously!

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    1. 2008 Presidential Election » Super Tuesday GOP delegates

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