Can the Democratic Nomination be won?
A commenter, Andy, challenges the possibility that the Democratic race might end before the Spring is over:
I can think of two ways for the race to wrap up earlier. There might be more.
Hillary scenario. They trade narrow victories, Hillary maintains a narrow edge (or slightly expands it). Economy does not tank and Iraq does not fall apart, and a McCain victory in November seems more possible. Key superdelegates push for party unity, and major supporters of both sides decide, facing deadlock, that Hillary has earned the shot, and pressure Obama to withdraw.
Obama scenario. He has a cash edge, is fundraising stronger, and now with 1 – 3 states at a time, can win almost every race. He really could, starting with Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington tomorrow. Maine is Sunday. Maryland, Virginia and DC are Tuesday. Obama is leading in the three on Tuesday, and could well have wins or draws in the others. The next week: Wisconsin and Hawaii. Again, could well go to Obama. That leaves Hillary’s firewall on March 4 in Rhode Island, Vermont, Ohio, and Texas. If Obama goes in with momentum, he could draw, and Hillary could give up the ghost.
The delegate math says that one of them needs to win two to one the rest of the way, which is not impossible, but not likely. But there are scenarios that let this end in Pennsylvania.
Super Tuesday – how were the predictions?
No credit for me here, I just read polls carefully.
GOP
I had McCain 750, Romney 360, Huckabee 160. All my numbers are a bit high, since I counted in 90 super-delegates who were not in play Tuesday. Actual counts, today: McCain 724, Romney 281, Huckabee 196
I noticed an uptick for Huckabee in the Border, and Romney in the West. Huckabee’s was larger, and throughout the South. Romney’s was there, but did not extend to California.
I read the polls well enough that I might try again…
State winners. I had Minnesota for McCain. It went Romney. I had Huckabee winning two states and coming in second to McCain in 3 southern states. Huckabee won all three: Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee.
click for Read more…
Is there a direct proof…
that the square root of 2 is irrational?
A kid asked, and I wasn’t sure, but didn’t think so.
(we did the standard proof by contradiction. Assume rational. write as p/q, (p,q) = 1, square it and show that 2|p. Then show 2|q. Contradiction…)
Anyone know off hand?
Quiet Birthday
First of two
in a row.
Friend, with the same birthday, called during class. No one calls during class. So I said “no one calls during class. It’s probably my friend with the same birthday as me, calling to remind me. He never forgets.” And it was.
Calls all day and evening from friends and family.
Highlight of the day was proving 
Super Tuesday, Democratic (36 hour update)
(Note to readers, if these projections are lousy, I will stop writing these posts. Promise).
Predictions for tomorrow, Super Tuesday, based on latest polls.
Hillary will win most states and most of the votes. She will win more delegates than Obama (for the first time this campaign!)
But she will not knock Obama out of the race. Nor will a late surge in his favor knock Hillary out. There is at least a month left, maybe two or three. Even if I am off by 200 delegates, big swing, the race continues.
Projection: Clinton will win delegates 1080 – 980 Tuesday
Projection: Clinton wins 17 states – Obama 5
New lead: 165 delegates (1339 – 1174)
Pundits will look for who exceeds or fails to meet expectations. Instead, the race is about delegates. Will Hillary take a big enough lead that she can stay ahead as Obama wins one at a time through the Spring? Or maybe that scenario is off? Whatever, we won’t know the answers tomorrow.
Recent polls only, or *best guesses. I apportion proportionately, after subtracting 15% from each (this will tilt things a bit to the leader).
Click for projected percents and delegates Read more…
Super Tuesday GOP delegates (48 hour update)
(I wrote this late Saturday, but the host of Sunday morning polls forced adjustments. Not dramatic, just trends carrying forward. On the Republican side they mostly favor a bigger McCain victory. On the Democratic side they are jumbled , but Hillary will still carry the vast majority of states).
Predictions for Super Tuesday, February 6, based on latest polls. Caveat – today Huckabee ticked up in the Border, and Romney in the West. This thing could still swing.
McCain 750, Romney 360, Huckabee 160
Predictions: Post-Tuesday, McCain leads with 680 730 750, Romney with 300 360, Huckabee 250 180 160. Almost 1200 are needed for nomination. A week ago when I had McCain at 540, I thought the race might drag. But these numbers are enough to stop Romney from pouring more $$$ down his rathole of a campaign, and him and Huckabee will drop within the week.
Methodology:
- More than one poll from the last week? Average them; if not,
- More than one poll from the last month? Weight them; if not,
- My guess ***
Winner-take-all states: McCain: New York, 101; New Jersey, 52; Connecticut, 30; Delaware, 18; Arizona, 53; Missouri, 58; Romney: Utah, 36; Montana, 25.
Detailed table (and more explanation) below the fold –> Read more…
SB – Pats; GOP – McCain; Dems – Clinton leads but race continues
Back a few weeks ago I thought I would only occasionally mention the elections. But Super Tuesday is coming, and the math is interesting.
First, Super Bowl. I’ve been a Giants fan for a long, long time. But they had their close game already, that’s past. New England 32 – 21, and not that close with the Giants scoring late. I’ll be rooting for the upset, but I don’t think so.
Next, Republicans. McCain took Florida, numbers are surging, Huckabee is splitting southern votes with Romney. McCain will take winner-take-all states: New York, Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, his home state of Arizona, maybe Missouri. He’ll lead in most others, and end Tuesday night with a massive delegate lead. I was calling 550 – 400 – 220 just a week ago, but Florida, Delaware, picking up Giuliani’s support, and a general surge will put it at more like 700 – 300 – 250. His opponents might limp on for another few weeks, but more likely just a few days. I’ll run the numbers in a follow-up post.
On the Democratic side, it is worth remembering that Obama has won or tied (in delegates) each state up until now: Iowa 16-15, New Hampshire 9-9, Nevada 13-12, South Carolina 25-12. Hillary has a lead in superdelegates, in momentum, and in Tuesday’s polls. Barring a last minute surge, she will take a large delegate lead, but not enough to win the race. I’ll run the numbers in a follow-up, but she’ll take about 60-65% and go up around 1450 – 950? The race could continue until Texas March 4, or even Pennsylvania April 22.
NCLB – Has the UFT finally gotten it right?
The UFT and AFT say that NCLB should be reformed (see here, and here, and here, and here, and here) (or anything on the AFT’s “Let’s Get it Right” site.) I say that it should be dumped (see here, and here, and comments here, and comments here, but this is just funny). And the difference isn’t semantics.
I’m not shy about what I think. NCLB has been awful for schools, teachers, students, and needs to be tossed. My union, until recently, hasn’t been shy either. The same ideology that produces support for charter schools and thinly disguised merit pay (schoolwide bonuses?) is rooted in some sense of ‘self-management’ and ‘accountability.’ They wonder why the nasty centrist Democrats seem, on parts of these issues, to agree with them. I don’t wonder.
But look. Randi Weingarten writes to the membership (via e-mail, and chapter leaders were asked to put them in boxes, too. Should be on the website soon):
…if NCLB worked … why… is the rhetoric just the same as [in 2000]? It’s because NCLB … has resulted instead in excessive testing of students, a broken promise on funding its mandates, and more sanctions than help for the nation’s public schools. The next step is to overhaul it completely, or maybe just “scrap” it…
Maybe just scrap it? Bravo, Randi?
(you’ll get the wrong impression if you don’t read on —>) Read more…
How can older students help?
I have occasionally used ‘aides’ (math-skilled seniors) in a freshman class. Usually it has been once a week. It’s been cute. I’ve given them little things to do. And they and the little kiddies have seemed to like it.
This term I am teaching extra algebra classes. I also have potentially more volunteers (they would be only 1 period/week, each). I am curious from those of you who have done this: how do you use older students most usefully and efficiently when you have them available?
Safely assume that the personal interactions with the freshmen are positive. Also assume that the seniors are not friends with the freshmen. And assume that the seniors have good math skills and reasonable organization skills.
In past years handing out and collecting have been main activities, and less frequently working with one or two students who needed help as the lesson proceeded.
During independent work, as I filter around, some of the seniors have been good at answering questions without giving answers away (but not all).
Ideas? Comments?
Too easy an algebra bonus? (smile)
Credit and bonuses get people’s attention, right? So here’s a twist (in a sort of boast-y post. Forgive me):
In my freshman algebra class this year I did not teach factoring the sum of perfect cubes. We had a good flow on trinomials, it took some struggle for the last few to master it, etc. I did assign exercises (multiplying to get sums/differences of perfect cubes) at the challenge level that could have made a connection, but the kids that chose those problems did not follow them up with board work, so I assume the connection was not made.
Anyhow, I’m thinking, aha, that would be tough as a bonus, if only a portion saw the reverse. But they can all divide polynomials, even if that is a harder topic, right? And dividing with missing places… hard, right?
So, I give a few hard bonus questions, 2 points each, and then the 2008 challenge. The first bonus:
Divide
OK, I know that this is not that tough for you or me, that I could have chosen more “interesting” coefficients, but still. Half the class picked up those 2 points, including a girl who freaked when she saw long division on the board one month ago, because she had never seen it before (with numbers, not polynomials) in her life.
How should we teach kids to multiply?
Standard long multiplication algorithm? Partial products? Latice? Fingers? Calculators? Any way they come up with on their own?
You’ve got an opinion. Dave at Math Notations has a poll. (poll is on the upper right. explanation is in this post)
Go vote!
Super Tuesday GOP delegates
Just predictions based on latest polls. Florida is Tuesday, Maine is Friday, the rest are Tuesday, February 5.
My totals are, when we wake up February 6, McCain leads with 550, followed by Romney with 400 and Huckabee with 200. Through systematic errors I have Giuliani with 62. Overestimate, probably. Almost 1200 are needed for nomination, so, were I correct, the race would continue in earnest.
* = winner take all
** = Thompson still leads in Tennessee; Paul is in double digits in Georgia
Close calls in winner-take-all states: Florida, Missouri, New Jersey
Methodology:
- If there are more than one poll from the last week, their average weighted to later in the week; if not,
- If there are more than one poll from January, their average, weighted to the most recent; if not,
- If there is any poll, the most recent; if not,
- My guess ***
In winner-take-all states, the winner takes all. In other states, I allocated based on poll percentages, not counting candidates who dropped out or with single digit polls. This probably overcounts delegates for candidates running 3rd or 4th, but with 10 – 20%.
Detailed table below the fold –> Read more…
Math A: What was it?
For readers not from New York State, this must be a strange title. Indeed, Math A and Math B are the names of strange state exams. Let’s roll back the clock.
(This is a longish post. Headings are: Old Math Regents; What Are Regents; The 1980s; Who takes regents? The 1990’s and Math A and B; June 2003 Math A; Integrated Exams. There is a list of vocational regents at the very end)
Education in New York State is governed by a Board of Regents, a semi-political, semi-expert panel. The Regents Exams are State of NY high school exams. I believe they were used to earn ‘academic’ as opposed to general diplomas. Only a portion of high school graduates in NYS passed them. The oldest group of exams I see include vocational topics as well*. Different diplomas for different exams? and an exam-free general diploma?
Carnival of Math Silver Jubilee
Over at Walking Randomly. I have been swamped and distracted and had no new math posts to submit… but… Lots of challenging stuff at a variety of levels. Go visit.
If you get that far, Amanda’s puzzle sounds so easy, but I’m still working on it. Just a number…
Regular Names
I get called lots of things. Lot’s of them aren’t really reprintable. But I think this is the first time I’ve been called regular.
It’s actually a serious post considering whether or not to use pop quizzes.
Use test scores to rate teachers? I object!
OK, now we have a full week of blogging and fury, a statement from Randi Weingarten, a resolution for the next DA, and what, four pieces on Edwize?
they couldn’t find experienced educators to fill all their administrator positions, so they are making experience unnecessary
So some nasty ‘centrist democrats‘ (apologies for the links, seemed necessary) go after Leo and the UFT for being opposed to rating teachers based on test scores on principle. And Leo clearly shows that they have ignored his carefully constructed methodological arguments against.
They accused EdWize having principles. Why not take a moment to thank them?
Sure, the effects of teaching are hard to measure, and there are all sorts of quantitative problems with finding them. Lots of methodological objections, many quite powerful.
But we also know that good teaching has little to do with teaching to the test. We’ve developed, through years of arbitration, bickering, grievances, and agreement, a system of evaluating teachers that, kind of, sort of, works. It looks at how the teacher teaches. And it involves people who know teaching (and not so long ago were still teaching a class) talking with people who are doing the teaching. It involves suggestions for improvement. It involves commendations for good work. And on the negative side, involves various warnings.
This value added crap removes that. On principle we should oppose a no-feedback system. On principle we should oppose a system that reduces students and teachers and schools to a single number or group of numbers. Remember? Progress Reports? Quality Reviews? Opposition to abuse of high stakes testing?
(Hmm. The principals and APs should be just as annoyed, if not more. The DoE is making them superfluous, expendable, replaceable. Any empty suit can read numbers from a chart. See, they couldn’t find experienced educators to fill all their administrator positions, so they are making experience unnecessary.)
But I have strayed.
On principle we should oppose a system that reduces students and teachers and schools to a single number or group of numbers
The objections should include:
- methodological (noted abundantly on EdWize)
- principled (in the resolution proposed for the next DA)
- questions of competence (the DoE has bungled each major piece of data it has handled recently)
- theoretical (is raising scores an end in itself; what is the effect on teaching?)
- thorny (if AP’s cheat on tests – see JFK or Susan Wagner – what pressures will our members be under?)
And we should not be embarassed to have principles.
NYCDoE rates teachers – more response
Continuing yesterday’s discussion…
Last night’s UFT Executive Board passed a moderately strong, broad-enough resolution against the DoE using test scores to rate teachers. (It probably won’t be on line until the Delegate Assembly ratifies it. I’ll see if I can post it before then). It repeated our opposition to using this data for any high stakes decisions.
Anyone who today trusts in either the good intentions or general competence of the DoE is a danger to themselves and to others.
I found three missing points: since the DoE linked teachers to their class scores, they will use this data. 1 We should object to the linking. 2 The schoolwide bonus (merit pay) decisions are not directly referenced; these are high-stakes decisions and we should actively object to the data being used for allocating money, and we should direct our members not to consider it. 3 this is now the 4th time in just a few months that the City has shown itself unable to appropriately use numbers (Progress Reports, Quality Reviews, NAEP). They should be publicly humiliated for their general incompetence, and we and our allies should take the lead.
I’d characterize the New York City Department of Education as loving data but hating research. The senior administrators are true believers in the power of data to drive decisions; but there is a remarkable lack of understanding of the fact that data don’t speak for themselves.
Bingo. When Eduwonkette says (in the body of that same post): “it is their right to examine whatever data they please to produce new knowledge” She misses the point. Progress reports. Quality Reviews. Test data that doesn’t match NAEP. We should crucify them for bad data collection, bad analysis (not to mention, bad faith). It is our obligation to interfere with the rights of the incompetent, to prevent harm being done to ourselves, our schools, our students.
Eduwonkette observed in the same discussion:
as Leonie Haimson suggested when she sent me this video in September, we all knew where this could go. And it did.
Which brings me to the UFT. City Sue, our director of policy research, sat on a panel from September that considered, in theory, what the DoE have announced they are doing in fact. We should have known. We should have informed our members.
Me? As programmer I was instructed to tie my member’s EIS # to their class lists, and that was enough. I was able to figure out what they were up to.
We must assume, given their record, that nothing the DoE does today is honest, that everything they do has nasty purpose, and that they’ll screw up anything they try in any event. Today no teacher, no parent, no student, and certainly no UFT leader has any excuse to trust in the DoE’s good intentions, to trust in the DoE’s competence, or to trust in the DoE’s commitment to improving anything about the school system whatsoever.
DoE: “We’ll rate teachers with test scores;” UFT to respond
First, a few links. UFT Statement is reproduced beneath the fold. The NY Times article. Leo Casey. Fred Klonsky. Eduwonkette.
Second, we knew or we should have known that the DoE was up to something. Here’s a post predicting that they were going to do this from a few months ago. I was (maybe too quietly) warning our leaders and other teachers last Spring. That being said, the DoE did this on the sly. Our fault was not assuming bad faith from them.
Third, the angry people are angry. No surprise. They blame people. No surprise. And I don’t blame them for being frustrated. But where is the useful response, beyond venting?
Tonight’s Executive Board will likely pass a more detailed resolution. The response should be hard, uncompromising. Some details to look for:
-
Will we link the misuse of data here to the Progress Report fiasco. Can we keep the DoE on the defensive in public?
-
Will we identify this as a “core” issue? “Core” seems to be the word du jour that means “so serious we would do anything to stop this from going forward.”
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Will we attempt to stop the DoE from collecting this data? Or will we stop at objecting to how they use it?
-
In particular, will we attempt to stop this data from being used in making schoolwide bonus (schoolwide merit pay) decisions?
-
And my favorite, will we challenge the DoE on its new practice of linking teachers’ into a central computer to track all this stuff? This is ARIS, at its core.
In one line, will we challenge the direction the DoE is moving in with data, or will we limit ourselves to the details of this particular proposal? I clearly advocate the former.
Leo likes shared decision making, and I question it. Not the issue here. Because this data is only being used by them, against us. With the schoolwide bonuses, this data empowers principals to walk into the committee of 4, drop reports in front of everyone, and say “Divide the $” The existence of the questionable data is enough to taint the process. In elementary schools, your kids for one year can be tied to you forever. A principal can show you that X% of your third graders 6 years ago were held back before high school (though not so many teachers stay that long). The fact that that data exists will poison the evaluation process.
So, do we engage this as an isolated problem, or do we see recognize that the DoE is abusing data as part of a broad attack on teachers and our contract, and respond accordingly?
Randi’s statement is below the fold.
Choose you for it
“1, 2, 3, shoot…”
Wednesday was a long day, followed by a long train ride home. Took an extra transfer to chat with someone, signal malfunction, transfer to another line, long wait…
Finally I get into the last car on a train to my neighborhood… not too full, maybe a seat… musical chairs… and I end up holding the poll between a group of seats.
One guy was sharing the poll, everyone else had seats. My face must have looked tired, but my pollmate’s did too. Early to mid-60’s, Black, leathery face – must work outside.
Next stop, a woman gets up. I motion that he should sit. He motions that I should sit. I shrug my shoulders, as if to say, it’s not going to happen. And then he pulls his elbow back, hand near his hip:
I’ll choose you for it
I almost fell down laughing. It was the best moment of the week.
(when I stopped laughing I said “you take this one, I’ll take the next” and he chuckled and sat down)
Is Giuliani finished?
A Republican needs about 1000 delegates to win the nomination. So far, Romney has 59, Huckabee 40, McCain 36… and Giuliani has 1. So far we have momentum, but very few delegates have been selected.
Giuliani’s strategy reflects desperation, not intelligence.
Super Tuesday: no wins, no funds, few delegates?
Next week in Florida, 57 delegates at stake, winner take all. Giuliani has been campaigning in Florida, hard, and really nowhere else.
New polls show Rudy trailing in Connecticut and New York
Super Tuesday (February 5, 12 days from now), a whole pile of states vote, awarding around 900 delegates. New York, 101, New Jersey, 52 and Connecticut, 30, are winner take all. California, 173, not winner take all.
Compare today’s polls to November (beneath the fold)
Giuliani turned a winning campaign to a trainwreck
Rudy’s strategy? “Don’t sweat the small states, take Florida and use the momentum to sweep NY, NJ and CT, and make inroads elsewhere. Leave Super Tuesday with 300+ delegates, the lead, momentum, and looking smart.”
(if you are even vaguely interested, you must look at the polling data —>) Read more…
Teacher Pay from far away – Louisville, KY
I’m too lazy to make a table today, but here’s the link for Louisville’s current teacher pay scale: click here.
Synopsis: Start at $36K – $48K (last number is for a doctorate, it lookes like $41k is for an MA). Advance about $600/yr for the first 5 years. Most jumps after that are $1000+, with bigger ones at 11 years ($2500) and 16 years ($2K). After year 17 there are only increases at year 20 and 25.
So, begin with a bachelors at $36K, five years with a masters $45K, ten years with + lots of credits $56, 25 years, same credential $71. Add $2K for a PhD.
Apparently they allow military service to count for up to two years experience.
And of course before comparing Louisville to NY, remember we are working with an entirely different cost of living.
Nobel prize for Pete Seeger?
I’m not sure Pete would approve seeing as how its gone to some pretty unsavory folks, but there’s a petition campaign, with a few or a dozen thousand signatures so far. So go here, and sign your name, too.
Here’s a favorite of mine:
Hat tip to Fred Klonsky for posting about this campaign.
Teachers share, nice example
That’s how it works, at least with ideas.
- When we don’t know what to do, we ‘borrow’ what we saw our own teachers do when we were kids.
- We have useful exchanges with colleagues. We discuss ideas that worked. We discuss (less often, should do it more) ideas that flopped.
- Sometimes we have PD where we listen to the presenter’s ideas, and sometimes, the teachers in the room comment and share.
- Ed courses should provide some of this, but, ahem. Ok.
- We read books and take ideas. Maybe not so much.
- And a few of us share via blogs. Which is why I am writing this post.
My school gives finals twice a year. They last 2:15. An exam designed for exactly that length, many students won’t finish; I want to test math, not speed. With a much shorter exam, the early finishers may disturb the late finishers, and in any event I will have stuck the proctor with a management problem.
Solution, design an exam for 80% of the time, allowing for those who work slower. Also, provide a time-absorbing bonus question. This can be tricky. Too hard, students won’t engage. Too easy, they will finish quickly and be idle.
So, aha, idea from… Denise from Let’s Play Math publicizes the 2008 Mathematics game. Take each of the digits, 2, 0, 0 and 8, and combine them to make all the numbers from 1 to 100. For my kiddies I made each one of them worth one tenth of one point.
At the bell, every kid was finishing the exam or working on the bonus. Beautiful. Thank you, Denise!
Data and me
Not from TNG.
When I was a kid, maybe 7 or 8? there was a summer I discovered baseball boxscores, and the leader lists. The lists were long in the Sunday paper, with RBIs, HRs, batting average. But in the daily paper we just got these little boxscores, and the leader lists didn’t get updated. Today computers ensure that when a guy hits a triple, the boxscore tells you how many that makes for the year, automatically updates his slugging percentage, his batting average. But this was back in the day (for values of “day”close to the early 1970s).
Eduwonkette and Leo found problems in the Dept of Education’s class size data. I should jump in.
I liked to look at how long the games were, and if anyone did exceptionally well. I could spend an hour a day. My stepfather, I think, pointed out that if the pitcher was good, the game was more likely to go fast. I started looking for the relationship, started trying to predict which games would go less than 2 hours, based on the pitchers’ records. I wasn’t particularly good, nor was I bad. I had no idea of the limitations of the data I was given (ie, found in the paper), and didn’t really know how to improve, except by a rough guess and check.
more –> Read more…
Class wiki?
If I want to create a wiki for a class (I work in a school within the NYC Department of Education), what wiki do I use? Do I chose? Any experience to share? The first google hit is wikidot. I’m sure that’s how most of my students would choose, but…
JD2718 