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Super Tuesday – how were the predictions?

February 8, 2008 pm29 4:39 pm

No credit for me here, I just read polls carefully.

GOP

I had McCain 750, Romney 360, Huckabee 160. All my numbers are a bit high, since I counted in 90 super-delegates who were not in play Tuesday. Actual counts, today: McCain 724, Romney 281, Huckabee 196

I noticed an uptick for Huckabee in the Border, and Romney in the West. Huckabee’s was larger, and throughout the South. Romney’s was there, but did not extend to California.

I read the polls well enough that I might try again…

State winners. I had Minnesota for McCain. It went Romney. I had Huckabee winning two states and coming in second to McCain in 3 southern states. Huckabee won all three: Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee.

click for

Aftermath. I wrote:

these numbers are enough to stop Romney from pouring more $$$ down his rathole of a campaign, and him and Huckabee will drop within the week.

True for Romney, who left, but not for Huckabee, who is staying in, at least for now. If he stays lower-budget he could compete for quite some time. Of course it becomes an “ideas” campaign, an attempt to shape McCain, who know is all but a complete lock to be the Republican nominee.

Democrats

I had Clinton 1339 – Obama 1174 for a 150 delegate margin. As with the GOP, I included superdelegates, so my numbers are high (only by 100 for the GOP, but by over 400 here). Still, the actuals show an only slightly smaller margin: 1076 – 1004.

I had most big states right, but my margins were way off, and I had many small states wrong. A couple of guesses here: 1) the polling, with a woman and a Black man involved was inherently less accurate 2) Clinton’s now public financial difficulties modified her strategy to contest a smaller number of states, essentially ceding many smaller states to Obama, and choosing to contest only those she ended up winning, plus Connecticut and Missouri (northeast + border + southwest + California). Smart.

And aftermath? Pundits are saying this goes to the Convention. I’m not so sure, but it at least gets to Pennsylvania in late April.

And I read the polls well enough that I might try again…

2 Comments leave one →
  1. andy permalink
    February 8, 2008 pm29 7:32 pm 7:32 pm

    If it goes past March 4, I don’t see how PA or anything else would solve it. And frankly, I’m not sure anything will solve it. Do the math. I think there are about 1,400 pledged delegates left. They both need close to 1,100 to get the nomination. Barring something really unexpected, neither is going to come close to winning that many of the remaining delegates when it’s still even. That would mean it’d come down to superdelegates at the convention, unless one of them gives up for the sake of party unity.

    Obama certainly has the short-term momentum. He’s had one of the best months in the history of presidential politics, and the calendar over the next couple weeks favors him. If he can win the contests leading up to Texas and Ohio, he’d have a shot to put it away (at least psychologically) on that day. If Clinton scores a big win in a state like Wisconsin or something, maybe she’d get enough momentum to do especially well on March 4. But that’s all psychological and doesn’t change the delegate math.

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