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Is Giuliani finished?

January 21, 2008 pm31 10:25 pm

A Republican needs about 1000 delegates to win the nomination. So far, Romney has 59, Huckabee 40, McCain 36… and Giuliani has 1. So far we have momentum, but very few delegates have been selected.

Giuliani’s strategy reflects desperation, not intelligence.
Super Tuesday: no wins, no funds, few delegates?

Next week in Florida, 57 delegates at stake, winner take all. Giuliani has been campaigning in Florida, hard, and really nowhere else.

New polls show Rudy trailing in Connecticut and New York

Super Tuesday (February 5, 12 days from now), a whole pile of states vote, awarding around 900 delegates. New York, 101, New Jersey, 52 and Connecticut, 30, are winner take all. California, 173, not winner take all.

Compare today’s polls to November (beneath the fold)
Giuliani turned a winning campaign to a trainwreck

Rudy’s strategy? “Don’t sweat the small states, take Florida and use the momentum to sweep NY, NJ and CT, and make inroads elsewhere. Leave Super Tuesday with 300+ delegates, the lead, momentum, and looking smart.”

(if you are even vaguely interested, you must look at the polling data —>)

Rollback time to November, two months ago. Because Giuliani had a different strategy. He was going to win almost everywhere. The current strategy isn’t cleverness at its peak, it is a last desperate attempt to save a campaign that once looked like it could steamroller the other candidates out of the way.

Already voted:

Iowa percentage place
Average of November polls 13.2 3rd
January results 3.5 6th
New Hampshire percentage place
Average of November polls 18.6 2nd
January results 8.5 4th
Michigan percentage place
Average of November polls 28.0 1st
January results 2.8 6th
Nevada percentage place
Average of November polls 28.7 1st
January results 4.4 6th
South Carolina percentage place
Average of November polls 18.0 2nd
January results 2.1 6th

Vote next Saturday:

*Florida percentage place
Average of November polls 32.3 1st
Average of January polls 20.4 2nd
Average of this week’s polls 20.7 2nd

Super Tuesday

California percentage place
Average of November polls 28.0 1st
Average of January polls 14.3 3rd
Average of this week’s polls 11.0 5th
*New York percentage place
Average of November polls** 42.3 1st
Average of January polls 25.0 2nd
Average of this week’s polls 21.5 2nd
*New Jersey percentage place
Average of November polls** 46.7 1st
Average of January polls 28.7 1st
Average of this week’s polls 27.0 2nd
*Connecticut percentage place
Average of November polls 41 1st
Average of this week’s polls 16 2nd

* = Winner take all
** = avg of the October and December polling for states without a November poll.

(source/methodology. http://Realclearpolitics.com. Averages are average of every poll they report that was mostly in November or January)

4 Comments leave one →
  1. Marilyn Toussaint permalink
    January 22, 2008 am31 1:48 am 1:48 am

    Giuliani’s not the man for the job. He has tunnel vision…………………..

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