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What to watch for Tuesday (and still get to sleep)

November 5, 2016 pm30 10:03 pm

many of you care deeply about Tuesday’s results. And in the rush, you may find yourself hanging on every update, trying to figure it all out. The stress will be unreal. Teaching Wednesday will be hard.

What you need is a crib sheet.

At 7:00 Virginia polls close. Look for a quick call for Clinton. If it takes them a while, try to be patient. But if they call it for Trump, start studying how to speak Canadian. It’s probably over, and a disaster.

At 7:30 Ohio and North Carolina polls close. If either of them is called for Clinton, go read a book, drink something soothing, and turn in early. It’s done. Clinton won. And if neither OH nor NC goes her way, it’s still ok.

At 8:00 Pennsylvania polls close. Assume for the moment it goes for Clinton (probably will). Also at 8:00, New Hampshire and Florida polls close. If either of them go for Clinton, go read a book, drink something soothing, and turn in early. It’s done. Clinton won.

If some of those four, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Florida go Trump, not a problem. If all of them go Trump, then you have to keep watching, it’s going down to the wire.

At 9:00 PM, Michigan polls close. Should go for Clinton. But let’s look at the two potential trouble spots:  If Michigan goes Trump, then Clinton can make up for it by winning North Carolina or Florida. If not, that’s probably a Trump election. If Pennsylvania goes Trump, then Clinton can make up for it by winning Florida. If she loses PA, and wins NC but not FL, then it’s down to the wire. If she loses PA and Michigan, then she needs Florida, or it’s all over. Add NC, and she wins, or else add NH and it’s down to the wire.

Review. By 8:30 or 9:00 if  – [remembering that (Michigan) is a 9PM close]

  • C: Clinton has VA, PA, (Michigan) and at least one of: Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, or North Carolina, that’s a wrap.
  • C: If Clinton has VA, PA not (Michigan), and has Florida or North Carolina, that’s a wrap
  • C: If Clinton has VA, (Michigan), but not PA, and has Florida, that’s a wrap
  • C: If Clinton has VA, but neither PA nor (Michigan), but she has Florida and North Carolina, that’s a wrap.
  • IDK: If Clinton has VA, PA, (Michigan) but none of: Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, or North Carolina, it’s down to the wire.
  • IDK: If Clinton has VA, (Michigan), but not PA, and has NC, but not Florida, that’s down to the wire
  • IDK: If Clinton has VA, but neither PA nor (Michigan), but she has Florida and NH but not North Carolina, that’s down to the wire.
  • T: If Clinton has VA, PA but not (Michigan), not Florida and not North Carolina, that’s a Trump win
  • T: If Clinton has VA, (Michigan), but not PA, and not Florida, and not North Carolina, that’s a Trump win
  • T: If Clinton has VA, but neither PA nor (Michigan), and not Florida, that’s a Trump win
  • T: If Clinton lost VA, you should have stopped watching.

What does “down to the wire” mean? Mostly it means, Nevada, whose polls don’t close until 10PM. Sorry. It also might mean the stray single electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska. It might mean Iowa, but if Clinton has lost Ohio, she’s probably already lost Iowa.

By the way, can Clinton lose PA or MI and make it up in Ohio? Highly unlikely – if she loses PA or MI she’s probably already lost OH.

In summary, watch 7 states (or 8, if it goes down to the wire):

  • 7PM Virginia (must win)
  • 7:30 Ohio
  • 7:30 North Carolina
  • 8PM Pennsylvania
  • 8PM New Hampshire
  • 8PM Florida
  • 9PM Michigan
  • 10PM “down to the wire” Nevada

If they talk about Clinton losing Georgia, didn’t matter. If they talk about Clinton winning Connecticut, didn’t matter. It’s just the 7 (or 8) above. That covers about 97% of what might happen. And it probably gets you to sleep soon after 9.

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