What after Ohio and Texas?

We have a general idea of what will happen today. Obama will win Vermont by about 15. Clinton will win Rhode Island by over 10. She will win Ohio by a small, yet clear margin (8?). And Texas will be a near toss-up.

Texas could be won by both. Clinton could win the primary and the popular vote. Obama could win the caucus and more delegates. Despite anything the media says, from a numbers point of view, coming in within 5 points, earning a margin of less than 10 delegates, that’s essentially a Texas draw.

But what next?

Nobody’s dropping out tomorrow. Even with a loss in Texas, Clinton stays (and remember, a loss would be quite narrow). If she loses Ohio… but that’s not what the numbers say will happen.

We have a near-tie. Obama has a small lead. But neither one of these guys can really wrap it up.

Watch the super-delegates

They want three things: to win, and to avoid pissing off their own constituents, and not to be held responsible for a mistake. In the last two weeks sixteen have declared for Obama, and one has flipped from Clinton to Obama. Margin went from 60 to 1842. But that’s peanuts. There’s hundreds left.

Superdelegates will be looking at how the candidates did in their district, and scouring electability numbers. They will review at returns from February and today. They will look hard at head-to-head matchups with McCain. And when they start to decide, they will go en masse. Could be later this week, but given that we are still in a virtual tie, they may hesitate.

The lean now is to Obama, but the longer this goes on, the longer it remains near-tied, the more Clinton’s camp will claim that a tie should be decided by experience. And superdelegates, wanting a way not to take responsibility, might be receptive.