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March 5, 2008 am31 10:21 am

Tonight (as of 1 AM) Clinton won Rhode Island by 18%. Obama won Vermont by 22%. Clinton is leading Ohio by 12%. And in the big one, Clinton is leading Texas by 4%.

Some networks (not all) have called Texas for Clinton. Less than half of Houston has been counted, which means it should draw closer than the current 80,000 vote difference. But there is unlikely to be enough votes there to draw it back to even.

The Texas caucus returns have started coming,  and as expected, Obama is leading.

We still have a tie, a little closer than yesterday, but with Obama still ahead by a nose.

  • Question 1: were there a lot of pro-Clinton superdelegates who were holding off, waiting for a win, and who will jump to her side now?
  • Question 2: were there a ton of pro-Obama superdelegates who were holding off, waiting for a clinch, and who will stay quiet for now?
  • Question 3: will the superdelegates decide it in the next few weeks, or does it run until Pennsylvania?

Today a commenter pointed out that this February 17 post seemed pretty much on target. If so, we have two and a half more months of this stuff.

One Comment leave one →
  1. andy permalink
    March 5, 2008 pm31 9:57 pm 9:57 pm

    Hillary has certainly put her coalition back together. And I’m pretty sure this will go through Pennsylvania. Lost (for now) in the coverage of her impressive wins last night, though, is the fact that she actually fell even further behind in the delegate race. She made up virtually no ground, and about 1/3 of the remaining pledged delegates came off the board. It’s getting to the point where the math even with the superdelegates is tough for her – are 60% of the remaining superdelegates really going to go here way even as a healthy chunk of Obama’s defect and she wins more than 60% of the remaining pledged delegates? Possible, I guess, but not likely.

    And this gets back to what I’ve been saying for a few weeks now – what exactly is Hillary’s path to the nomination? Mark Penn just put out a long strategy memo that talked a lot about Obama’s experience and Clinton’s wins in big states but didn’t say a thing about how they actually expect to get enough delegates. Seven weeks is a long time for that reality to sink in, especially if people start getting tired of this race.

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