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Wisconsin exit polls and more battleground polls

February 20, 2008 am29 6:01 am

Wisconsin was a freebie for Clinton. Win, and the headlines say upset. Lose, and everyone knew she was not really campaigning there. In fact, there was a stealthy Clinton campaign in the state over the last week, but the expectation remained that she had not committed to this battle. Still, it will be a nice win for Obama. Fox exit polls show him winning many sub-groups, and running even among some key Clinton constituencies: women, families with income under $50k, union households. Exit polls are notoriously iffy, but if these hold they point to a margin of over 10%.

Bigger news: more Texas and Ohio polls. All show Clinton with an ever-diminishing lead. CNN has her with less than the margin of error in Texas. But she doesn’t necessarily need to win the states big to keep the contest going (and the longer it lasts, the better her chances). Still, not good news for Clinton. But that’s not Tuesday’s worst for her/best for Obama:

New battleground polls: (click to see the numbers and discussion –>)

Iowa, a true battleground (2004 R by 0.7%, 2000 D by 0.3%): McCain trails Obama by 10% but leads Clinton by 11%.
Virginia leans clearly Republican (2004 R by 8.2%, 2000 by R 8.0%): McCain trails Obama by 6% but leads Clinton by 3%.

Now, Clinton is supposed to be at a low just now (losing 10 of 10) with some daylight ahead in Texas and Ohio, but that’s bad battleground results in the last few days from 6 of 7 states: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Oregon. Those are the sorts of polls that worry superdelegates. She’s got about two weeks to clean those numbers up.

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