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Who will win?

November 6, 2006 am30 3:41 am

Since there are no very interesting elections in New York City, I looked elsewhere to see what was in store for election day (besides a full day of staff development. yeccch)

Seems that the Democrats have a chance to gain each house of Congress. Pundits and Pollsters (but not punsters) get big money predicting what will happen. But hell, it’s just a guessing game, and I am a pretty good guesser. Anyway, anyone can say anything stupid in a bar, but it takes a special kid of stupid to make them in print. Here goes:

Today the Senate is 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 1 Independent who caucuses with the Democrats, and Dick Cheney breaks ties. There are 33 (34?) seats up for election, most of which will safely remain with their current party.

Interesting Senate Races

Currently held by Republicans: Pennsylvania and Ohio, Democrats will win those two. Missouri, Virginia, Montana, Rhode Island. Dems leading in all. I think they will only end up picking up 2 – 3, maybe Montana and Missouri. Tennessee and Arizona, Republicans should hold onto both.

more here (with highly speculative numbers!)——>
Currently held by Democrats: Minnesota, Michigan, Washington, they should hold. New Jersey looked competitive, probably won’t be. Maryland is 50-50. Connecticut will go to Lieberman who is running as an independent, but will caucus with the Democrats, if they let him.

I put the new Senate at 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 2 Independents, and Cheney.

House of Representatives

Currently 232 Republicans, 202 Democrats, and 1 Independent who caucuses with the Democrats. Prognosticators have been talking about a 30 – 40 seat swing to the Democrats. But there has been some late sliding in the polls to the Republicans, including in several hotly contested races.

I’m moving these seats from GOP to Dem: Az-8, Co-7, Fl-13,22, Ia-1, In-2,8, NC-11, NM-1, NY-20, Oh-18, Pa-6,7,10. That’s 14.

In addition, these GOP seats are really close: Az-5, Ca-11, Ct-2,4,5 Fl-16, Il-6, In-9, Ky-3, NH-2, NY-19,24,25,26,29 Oh-1,2,15, Tx-22, Va-2, Wa-8, Wi-8. That’s 22. Which will the Democrats pick up? I could play it safe and offer a number, but no…. By the way, DeLay’s seat and Foley’s seats are listed here… a write – in and substitute candidate should win for the GOP, but those are iffy propositions.

OK, so here goes:
GOP: Az-5, Ca-11, Ct-2,5, Fl-16, Il-6, In-9, NH-2, NY-19,25,26, Tx-22, Va-2, Wa-8
Democrat: Ct-4, Ky-3, NY-24,29, Oh-1,2,15, Wi-8. That’s 8.
There are 3 Democratic seats in play, 2 in Georgia, and In-7. I guess In-7 and one Georgia seat flip.

So, 14 likely, 8 iffy, -2 flips, I am putting it at 223 Democrats, 212 Republicans.

51R, 47D, 2I
212R, 223D

3 Comments leave one →
  1. November 6, 2006 pm30 9:20 pm 9:20 pm

    My prediction:

    Dems will pick up 29 seats in the House. The new Senate will be 50-50, with Cheney as the tie-breaker.

  2. November 7, 2006 am30 4:57 am 4:57 am

    Robert Novak (I won’t link to him) has a list similar to my house list out today. He disagrees with a few of mine:

    I flip Fl-22 on my first list, he has it leaning GOP.
    I flip Ky-3, NY-29, Oh-1,2, Wi-8 on my lean list. He has all 5 leaning GOP.

    He flips Tx-22 on his likely list. I have it lean GOP (write-in makes it hard to predict. Which is complete bs, since they are all hard to predict.)

    He flips Ca-11, Ct-5, NH-2, NY-25 on his lean list. I have all 4 leaning GOP.

    Finally he has In-7 likely to be retained by the Democrats, but flips both Georgia seats, where I flip In-7 and only 1 Georgia seat.

    He has 213R, 222D

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