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Will there be a runoff?

September 11, 2013 am30 11:36 am

The NYTimes election map I like shows the following votes not yet counted (don’t know if this is accurate)

  • Staten Island – 2 precincts
  • Brooklyn – Cobble Hill – 7 precincts. (probably good for De Blasio)
  • Brooklyn – west of Flatbush, scattered – 7 precincts (some Thompson, some De Blasio)
  • Brooklyn – north of Eastern Parkway – 6 scattered precincts ( 2 Thompson, 4 De Blasio)
  • Brooklyn – Canarsie, East NY, 11 scattered prencincts (about half and half)
  • Rockaway – 6 scattered precincts (all near the 40% line, might hurt De Blasio slightly, or be a wash.)
  • The rest of Queens 9 scattered, won’t help De Blasio, probably won’t hurt much, either
  • Washington Heights east of Broadway, mostly between 155 and 163 – 14 uncounted precincts. These will pull down De Blasio’s numbers, a little.
  • The rest of Manhattan  – 7 scattered, neutral overall
  • A swath of the south Bronx, south of the Cross Bronx, west of Metro North (Park Avenue), down to about 153rd.   In adjacent precincts turnout was light, and De Blasio polled in the 30 – 35% range. There are 70 or so precincts here. This will pull De Blasio down, but the low turnout may mitigate the effect.
  • The rest of the Bronx – 10 scattered, hard to predict, probably most close to the 40% mark, so little impact. (Most are near my house – one of the neighborhoods that shows up with swatches of mixed colors on the election map…)

On the precincts still not counted, De Blasio will slip close to 40% even (he was at 40.195% this morning, tweaked down to 40.187% as some Highbridge numbers came in), but probably will not fall below.

And then there’s absentee ballots. Since they were cast earlier, and De Blasio has been on an upswing, that might suggest that they will pull him down a bit. But I really don’t know who casts absentee ballots in NYC. I don’t know how military voters will vote. So that’s a huge question mark, still.

But expect when 100% of the precincts are in, if De Blasio remains over 40, even by a hair, for pressure to come down on Thompson and the UFT to concede.

(more about that, later)

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