Superdelegate #214
March 22, 2008 am31 12:55 am
tags: Barack Obama, Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton, politics, superdelegate, US Presidential Election
That would be Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, the 214th superdelegate to endorse Barack Obama.
Polls have been sliding from Obama and back towards even, or in some cases to a small advantage to Clinton.
The “More Perfect Union” speech may have been well-written for the history books. This week, though, it just stopped the polls from tilting further.
But the Richardson endorsement, is that one vote, or does it have a whole bunch behind it? We’ll see in the next few days. I’ll write more.
from → politics, The Wide World
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JD2718 
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – virtually all of the analysis floating around about Obama vs. Clinton right now ignores the simple fact that she has no realistic chance of winning. Her own campaign concedes she won’t win the elected delegate contest. She would have to win by 20 points or more in basically every remaining state to win the popular vote, and it’s not a given that superdelegates would move to her 60/40 (the ratio she needs) if she somehow managed to do that. The only other option is that the party would tell the first black person with a real shot at the nomination and his supporters that even though he won more votes, delegates, and states, he loses.
Yes, both of these scenarios are possible, in the same sort of way it’s possible that I’ll win the lottery tomorrow. But if any other candidate were in this situation, the media would have written him/her off long ago. For some reason people are caught up in the mythology of the “Clinton machine.” It’s not going to matter at the end of the day.
Neither one wins without superdelegates, and there’s 250 or so of them undecided.
If it were cut and dried, the supers would have fallen in line, given him the nomination, and it would be over. But it’s not. There is a difference between the numbers favoring Obama (which they do), and the race being over (which it is not).