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The Democratic race from here

February 17, 2008 am29 10:46 am

Still more election posts, since I haven’t been horrible yet. Huckabee bows out March 5 (my prediction), but that’s not so interesting now.

Dems – Obama wins Wisconsin, less than 10 points, but that changes nothing (if Clinton pulls it out, unlikely but possible, it’s by a point or two, and deflates Obama’s momentum, but doesn’t decide the race either).

Clinton wins March 4, but don’t know how big. Vermont, with no polls yet (?) goes for Obama. Figure Ohio by 20, Texas by 10 (that’s today’s polls). Changes nothing. Mississippi and Wyoming (Obama), pause, Pennsylavania April 22. Then single state races. Starting with PA, either Obama will win almost all of them, or Clinton will keep it knotted up. And in April, or May, or even June (but I don’t think that late), the superdelegates will force the issue and start 1) committing, and 2) pressuring the weaker of the two to drop.

Who? Looks like Obama today, but that’s today. My friend’s kid plays chess. Last week she took a big lead on a higher-rated player, and offered a draw. She was happy to have drawn a strong player, he was happy to escape with half a point. And if this were chess, Obama would be offering a draw. But he can’t. He needs to stay ahead, open a little space. Tie here goes to Clinton.

My prediction? Wisconsin – BO 7; Rhode Island – HRC 10; Vermont – BO 10; Texas – HRC 10; Ohio – HRC 20; Wyoming (following week) – BO 15; Mississippi – BO 20. (delegates tied or edge to Obama)

April 22 Pennsylvania – HRC 15; May 6 North Carolina – BO 25; Indiana – BO 15; May 13 West Virginia – BO 10; May 20 Oregon – BO 20; Kentucky – BO 10; Memorial Day – Clinton concedes.

2 Comments leave one →
  1. JPS permalink
    March 5, 2008 am31 9:31 am 9:31 am

    I found this post on Mar 4 and just wanted to say that that it looks to be playing out… Good job

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