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Pennsylvania Democratic Primary

April 22, 2008 pm30 5:19 pm

Today’s the day, but I will not be able to watch, or follow the blogs, or any of that stuff. I can still make predictions though!

Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics does a good job of comparing Pennsylvania to Ohio. He expects Hillary to have a slight, late uptick. Extend it another point or two, plus some late break in her favor: Clinton by 7 to 9 points.

Also at RCP, John McIntyre provides a guide to Pennsylvania’s aftermath that makes sense (there’s more to the post, I’m just quoting the numbers part):

Obama wins: Race is totally over.
Clinton wins by 5 or less: Race is effectively over.
Clinton wins by 6-9: Status quo, which favors the front runner Obama, particularly as the clock winds down.
Clinton wins by 10-13: Clinton remains the underdog, but her odds of being the nominee will be considerably higher than the conventional wisdom in the media.
Clinton wins by 14+: Totally different race, as Clinton will be on a path to claim a popular vote win that will give her every bit as much of an argument as the legitimate “winner”. In this scenario anything could ultimately happen, including neither Clinton nor Obama becoming the eventual nominee.

So, Clinton will cut into Obama’s lead in delegates, but just a bit, maybe 5 – 20 delegates. (the other bit, the popular vote notion, that’s not how these primaries and caucuses are arranged) Both will creep towards the 2025 delegate mark, without real possibility of reaching it without superdelegates declaring for them.

So the next post a later will be about Superdelegates.

One Comment leave one →
  1. Anonymous permalink
    April 28, 2008 am30 3:17 am 3:17 am


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