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Next stop, Wisconsin

February 15, 2008 pm29 4:44 pm

The Democratic race continues. Tuesday is Hawaii caucuses (should go easily to Obama) and Wisconsin. I thought Hillary was pulling out of Wisconsin to look ahead to March 4 in Ohio and Texas. But no. She’s set up shop in Wisconsin. Running some ‘negative’ anti-Obama ads.

Folks, it is certainly possible that this race wraps up in Wisconsin. But even with a big Obama victory it probably continues to March 4. And the only recent poll I see points to a moderate, not a big, Obama victory.

This election probably continues. It continues past Ohio and Texas. Pundits are reading their own spin. But here’s my read: Wisconsin is a freebie for Clinton. If she squeaks out a win, big headlines that there is a race again. If she loses, probably has no effect, except for putting pressure on Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

If she wins Texas and Ohio big, it’s even again. And I assume that she has an advantage in an even race. If she wins small in Texas and Ohio, today’s arguments that we are an inch short of annointing Obama continue, and she will feel more pressure to concede, but I think it would take actual losses March 4 to get her to seriously consider that. And polls show her, for now, with comfortable leads in Ohio and Texas.

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There was buzz that Obama was more electable, but recent battleground state polls are split between who does better against McCain – Colorado swings 21 points for Obama (that’s huge), New Hampshire – Obama 11, Missouri – Obama 1, Ohio – Clinton 1, Pennsylvania Clinton 5, Florida – even.

Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post’s blog seems to recommend that Clinton go negative… That would change the dynamic of the campaign a bit, but I think if she went more negative than that one ad in Wisconsin, it would finish her, not help her.

Finally, there were stories Thursday about two superdelegates considering switching from Clinton to Obama. That’s headlines for one evening, not the race. Ten switching, that would be big. Twenty undeclared declaring, that would be big. But yesterday’s news was telling us that mass defections are possible. We shouldn’t confuse the possibility with event.

2 Comments leave one →
  1. February 15, 2008 pm29 7:57 pm 7:57 pm

    wow, someone’s breaking out the ill politics. Thanks for the breakdown, sir.

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  1. Electability - focus on battleground states « JD2718

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