Super Tuesday GOP delegates

Just predictions based on latest polls. Florida is Tuesday, Maine is Friday, the rest are Tuesday, February 5.

My totals are, when we wake up February 6, McCain leads with 550, followed by Romney with 400 and Huckabee with 200. Through systematic errors I have Giuliani with 62. Overestimate, probably. Almost 1200 are needed for nomination, so, were I correct, the race would continue in earnest.

* = winner take all
** = Thompson still leads in Tennessee; Paul is in double digits in Georgia
Close calls in winner-take-all states: Florida, Missouri, New Jersey

Methodology:

1. If there are more than one poll from the last week, their average weighted to later in the week; if not,
2. If there are more than one poll from January, their average, weighted to the most recent; if not,
3. If there is any poll, the most recent; if not,
4. My guess ***

In winner-take-all states, the winner takes all. In other states, I allocated based on poll percentages, not counting candidates who dropped out or with single digit polls. This probably overcounts delegates for candidates running 3rd or 4th, but with 10 – 20%.

Detailed table below the fold –>