Trends, Notes: Prior UFT Election Results

There is a big UFT election coming in the spring of 2025, and people are already talking about it. The retirees’ shocking victory over Mulgrew and Unity in June has understandably led to speculation, rumor and scheming.

For as long as I have been a teacher, and well before that, “Unity” has controlled the UFT, and other group or groups have contested the election. The caucuses have always included “New Action” with a varying array of other opponents or allies. Politically, all have been progressive, except Solidarity. Just looking at the percentages does not really reveal what is going on. Here’s a link to some data, if you are curious.

Just summarizing the contenders helps a little: 2004 Unity, allied with New Action, opposed by ICE/TJC (who won high schools only). 2007 Unity, allied with New Action, swept ICE/TJC. 2010 same. 2013 Unity, allied with New Action swept MORE. 2016 MORE/New Action won the high schools. 2019 Unity swept against 3 divided groups. 2022 a united opposition won the high schools. That’s hard to follow, isn’t it? History lesson? Some other time.

What we really need is some analysis. Much of which I have previously written up. Here’s the big four conclusions:

Unity’s In Service Vote

There is a long-term downward trend in every division for Unity. The graphs are a little bumpy, but downward.

A detail that’s worth knowing – with the increasing numbers of K-8 and 6-12 schools (including many of the new Bloomberg schools) there are many 6-8 teachers who get categorized as Elementary or High School.

In any event, the average teacher change for Unity is -7.8% each election. The average functional chapters change is -4.0% each election.

I wrote a whole long paper – this downward trend has nothing to do with how the “oppositions” are doing. Unity has had dips when the opposition dips, and has had a bump when we’ve gone up too. Maybe the best way to understand it – we are not winning away each other’s votes. We are each mobilizing (or not mobilizing) our own votes. We fish in separate ponds. And Unity’s ponds are drying up. (or there is an algae bloom, or some pollution, but enough of this metaphor.)

Unity’s lost votes might have something to do with the switch to appointing District Reps (instead of Chapter Leaders electing them). Elected District Reps were fierce campaigner (I think they broke rules to push Unity) and had strong relationships with the CLs, who they needed to push the Unity vote in the schools. Weingarten severed that link when she ended that system. Sure, DRs appointed by Randi (and now by Michael Mulgrew) are extremely loyal to the President, but they no longer command the same degree of loyalty from their CLs, and are not getting out nearly the same vote. Down 50% in two decades. Ouch.

Oh, if that trend holds (and it shouldn’t, it’s just a rough guide) they will lose another 620 teacher votes this coming election.

“Opposition” In Service Vote

If you lump together all the opposition votes, compare them election to election, what jumps out? The totals don’t change much. Exceptions? Jumps of about 1500 votes when the groups united in 2016 and 2022, and a disaster in 2019 when 3 small groups opposed Unity individually.

Looking at each division – Elementary School, Middle School, High School – even Functional – same pattern. (and delete 2019, and there is some evidence for a slow, long term absolute rise. That chart is in the link, just above.)

Do they know you? Do they like you? Do they trust you?

Campaigning at its best is a face to face activity. And getting someone to vote for your team, ask those three questions. And campaigns are largely about groups. But sometimes an individual can play an outsize role. James Eterno worked with ICE, and then MORE, then Solidarity, then UfC. No matter what else you say about James, he was an effective campaigner. He got into schools. People knew him. He talked to people. They liked him. He worked on people’s behalf. They trusted him. And he earned votes. Usually these things are hard to quantify, but we are lucky. In 2016 James worked with MORE in its alliance with NAC. Solidarity was on its own. But in 2019 James worked for Solidarity. What happened to Solidarity’s votes?

That’s 268 in the high schools, 10 in the middle schools, and 297 in the elementary schools. But James passed away this year. In MORE or New Action, the group would continue to reach those voters. But James worked in ICE and, alongside, I guess, Solidarity, which do not function as cohesive groups, but collections of individuals. Those teachers in Queens might know someone else from ICE, they might even like them, but they won’t trust them.

That’s 575 votes, majority could well be lost. In addition, I don’t think Solidarity will have an impact. I doubt that they ever brought very much to the table (except an inflated vote total in 2019, when James worked for them, when the opposition was splintered, and when the traditional opposition, New Action, ran a very partial slate.)

Retirees!

Retirees are a different matter. For years Retiree Advocate took about 15% against Unity’s 85% in Chapter elections, and the various oppositions combined got 11-16%. Unity was as high as 89%, as low as 84%. Amazingly consistent (explanation with data).

There’s a good reason. Retirees do not face abusive principals, or issues with tenure. They don’t have to transfer, or deal with their CAR, or letters to file. There are no new DoE mandates, no bulletin boards. And no new contracts. Nothing to change your mind about who to vote for. Retirees vote in union elections they same way they voted in their last in-service election. And they, more or less, never change. Eventually retirees pass on, and younger retirees take their place. So there is a slight long term trend towards opposition groups.

And nothing would have changed this, ever. Just protect our pensions and our health care, and the votes will keep coming. But Unity decided not to protect retirees’ health care. I’m not footnoting this – if you read this far you know about the Medicare Advantage fiasco. But here’s what happened: Opposition jumped from 15% to 30%, 30% once again… and then Retiree Advocate ran an amazing campaign this spring. We recruited like never before. We mobilized. We did the one-on-one campaigning. “Each one, reach one.” And we went from 30% all the way to 63%. It was astounding.

Absent any other evidence, we should assume this number will roughly hold still. I think over time though, if Unity continues to control the union, they will undermine the leader of the Retired Teachers Chapter, and our support will suffer. Today, right now, our support is at its peak.

And, oh yeah, numbers. We would gain 7946 votes, Unity would lose the same number. Swing of 15,892.

What’s this mean?

Roughly, if we did the same thing we did in 2022 –

• We would lose maybe 500-600 that James Eterno would have contributed. Probably a bit less – but enough to note.
• Unity would lose 600-700 – because that’s what they have been doing.
• Regular in-service opposition votes would stay steady.
• Retirees would add almost 8000 for us, take away almost 8000 from Unity.

And – ?

That would be a swing of 15,900 – 16,100 votes. And what did Unity win by? 15,018.

If we did essentially the same thing as last time, MORE, New Action, Retiree Advocate, we would be favored to win.