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What states are not battlegrounds?

February 22, 2008 pm29 8:41 pm
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A. a state that went for the same party in 1992 – 2004 (2000 and 2004 by at least 5%) is not a battleground.
B. a state that went for the same party in 2000-04 by at least 10% is not a battleground (the earlier elections had the Perot wildcard)
C. went for the same party in 1992 – 2004 but closer than 5% in 2000 or 2004 – semi-battleground
D. went for the same party in 2000-04 by at least 5% – semi-battleground

United States presidential election, 2004Watch: New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Tennessee, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire.

A. Democratic states: Washington, California, Hawaii, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine. Total: 183 electoral votes from 14 states and DC.

A: Republican states: Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana. B: Republican states: Kentucky, Georgia. Total 158 electoral votes from 18 states.

(click for more –>)

C: Lean sharply Democratic: Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan. Total 48 electoral votes from 4 states.

D: Lean sharply Republican: Arizona, Montana, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia. Total 33 electoral votes from 5 states

Total Democratic and leaning Democratic: 231 from 18 states vs Total Republican and leaning Republican: 191 from 23 states

Hottest battlegrounds: 10 states with 115 electoral votes: New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Tennessee, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire.

Less than perfect: I think New Jersey, Maine, Virginia, are not really solid, and Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan may be vulnerable. So the math seems to start at 183 – 158.

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  1. jd2718 permalink*
    February 23, 2008 am29 5:30 am 5:30 am

    Rasmussen seems to think I got the battlegrounds right:

    Nine states with 101 Electoral Votes … pure Toss-Up or just slightly leaning … battleground states of Election 2008: Florida (27), Ohio (20), Missouri (11), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), and New Hampshire (4).

    They include Virginia (in my last line, but not my battleground list) and they omit Tennessee and Pennyslvania.

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