Primaries

(I don’t plan on writing much on this topic)

This season of primaries seems exciting. They are coming fast and furious, and both races are still open. The Democrats are down to two frontrunners, with Edwards just hanging on. The Republicans have, hm, right now it’s two or three in front, but I think all five, not including the internet guy, are still in it. For those who enjoy horse races, they have two.

But what of the choices? On the Democratic side, it looks like style over substance, in a very serious sort of way. The (partial) exception is John Edwards, who has sounded a more populist, labor-ish them. But a pile of not so bad speeches don’t make him a working class hero (note to self, good name for a sandwich shop, bet it already exists). Look at this position grid. Edwards and Clinton, on the big issues? 24 out of 25 matches. And the last is a maybe.

Actually, Fred Klonsky’s hohum response seems about right. Where Obama differs from the other two, like the possibility of US military action against Iran, or NCLB, it makes me cringe. He was one of the 23 Senators to vote no on the resolution authorizing the invasion of Iraq, but given his statements on Iran, that looks tactical, not a matter of principal.

Change, change, change. Change don’t mean jack. I have been watching these things long enough to remember Gary Hart’s energetic centrism catching the pundits fancy in the face of Walter Mondale’s plodding Minnesota liberalism. Change change change.

There still is a story here. Tens of thousands of white folks, and not all raving liberals, have cast votes for a Black guy. That’s a story. (The fact that it’s a story is really a profound comment on the vitality of racism in the United States). But the votes, they are a story, too. I am afraid that the better he does, the more the backlash will become a story as well. I’ve already seen vile “keep the white house white” messages. I assume that mainstream racists, in both parties will be express themselves more tactfully.

What of the Republicans? Their five candidates actually disagree on some stuff. More important than their positions, their respective bases of support – who will they serve? Just now, they are all getting clobbered in the polls in head to heads against the Deomcrats, that is, except John McCain who’s running even. But, but, but…

The election is not decided head to head, but through the electoral college. We are far from the election. There are ten months. What’s going to happen in the economy? in the world? Who is going to say something incredibly stupid? (answer, all of them. The real question, whose stupid comment is going to catch the country’s imagination). And, as always, how many American will bother to vote, and of those who vote, who will vote based on positions, and who will vote based on which candidate they like better?

Everyone seems to be saying this election is the Democrat’s to lose. Absurd. I’ve been paying attention in one form or another through eleven elections. Which was sewn up a year in advance? ’72, maybe. ’76 was close (despite Watergate). The embassy hostages in Iran were decisive in 1980, and John Anderson messed with the math. I guess we knew early in ’84 and ’88? I am not so sure. But it was sewn up early in ’92, and then went the other way. Perot screwed up both 92 and 96. And we know that ’00 and ’04 went down to the wire. So, yeah, I am pretty sure nothing’s decided yet.