Surge Since New Years

Nationally there was a dip in new cases after Thanksgiving (New York State did not experience that dip; we have special leadership). But after Christmas the numbers have roared back. We are currently seeing a surge that is steeper than the spring (once the unreported cases are factored in.)

7 Day moving averages, for the US, NY, NJ, CT, MA:

Source: Worldometer

And we have not not yet felt the effects of B.1.1.7, the new COVID-19 variant that is now ripping through England, Scotland and Wales. The Kent Variant (need a better name) transmits much more quickly than what we currently have. And it has arrived on these shores. It is just a matter of time.

Yes, there are vaccines. There is light at the end of the tunnel. But there is a real danger that things will get worse, significantly worse, first.

An ugly point that should be made – new cases go up first – serious cases go up later – deaths go up later. This sequence is made worse when hospitals reach actual capacity – but the amplification can occur before, as the strain on the health care facility grows.

Cases per 100,000 population, daily, from December 31, up until January 8 (yesterday):

December 31:

January 1:

January 2:

January 3:

January 5:

January 7:

January 8:

Source: NPR Coronavirus by the Numbers (data originally from Johns Hopkins)

For a late November – late December time series (four maps) see this NY State is an Outlier post.

I think the mottled pattern in the final map reflects rapid, uneven spread, with uneven testing and reporting. With steady spread, the numbers move slowly, and regions appear to move together.