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Changing Membership, Changing Electorate

April 28, 2013 pm30 8:54 pm

This is a time series of charts, showing UFT membership and votes by division for the 2004, 2007, 2010, and 2013 elections. I created the charts from the numbers of ballots mailed and the number of ballots returned, which has been part of the reported election results, including this year.

Raw numbers, by division, by year, with turnout percentages are included at the bottom of this post.

Members by Division, by year

UFT Members by Division by Year

Voters by Division, by Year

UFT Voters by Division by Year

It is also worth noting that the areas represent different numbers of members, and of voters.

Members
2004 – 154 thousand
2007 – 164 thousand
2010 – 170 thousand
2013 – 176 thousand

Voters
2004 – 56 thousand
2007 – 49 thousand
2010 – 56 thousand
2013 – 45 thousand

The jump in the percentage of votes cast by retirees is a direct result of the constitutional amendments raising the cap on how much retiree votes count. New Action strongly opposed those amendments. Retirees cast 53% of the votes, an absolute majority, in this election.

The special decline in middle school votes may be due to how teachers in in K-8 or 6-12 schools are categorized. I do not know if this is the correct explanation.

In the course of a decade, the number (not percent) of teachers voting has fallen from 21 thousand to under 13 thousand, and whereas teachers cast just under 40% of the vote nine years ago, they cast exactly 30% today.

Division Year
Mailed Returned % voting
ELEM 2004 35,511 12,170 34%
2007 36,912 8,904 24%
2010 36,907 10,286 28%
2013 34,163 7,311 21%
IS/JHS 2004 13,489 3,720 28%
2007 12,841 2,384 19%
2010 11,697 2,880 25%
2013 10,807 1,875 17%
HS 2004 17,455 5,399 31%
2007 19,799 4,568 23%
2010 19,931 5,197 26%
2013 19,040 3,800 20%
Teachers 2004 66,455 21,289 32%
Subtotal 2007 69,552 15,856 23%
2010 68,535 18,363 27%
2013 64,010 12,986 20%
FUNCTIONAL 2004 40,424 10,829 27%
2007 42,614 9,133 21%
2010 45,889 10,622 23%
2013 51,040 7,698 15%
Inservice 2004 106,879 32,118 30%
Subtotal 2007 112,166 24,989 22%
2010 114,424 28,985 25%
2013 115,050 20,684 18%
RETIRED 2004 45,082 21,998 49%
2007 50,208 22,427 45%
2010 53,560 24,795 46%
2013 58,537 22,462 38%
TOTAL 2004 151,961 54,116 36%
2007 162,374 47,416 29%
2010 167,984 53,780 32%
2013 173,587 43,146 25%

See turnout analysis here.

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4 Comments leave one →
  1. chaz permalink
    April 28, 2013 pm30 9:06 pm 9:06 pm

    It makes the UFT election a farce when retirees are the majority of the votes.

Trackbacks

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