UFT Retiree Election – Some numbers

The voting is mostly done in this UFT Retiree election. The vote count is scheduled for Friday, tomorrow. This will be the closest race ever for leadership of the Retired Teachers Chapter. One party “Unity” has won every RTC election, up until now. But the challengers this time, Retiree Advocate, are running a strong race.

(I am a retired United Federation of Teachers member, and I am running in this election with Retiree Advocate.)

Retiree votes in the United Federation of Teachers were stable for years and years. But the leaked news that Unity leadership was trading away Medicare for privatized ‘Medicare Advantage’ created a new reality. There has been one union-wide and one RTC election since, with surprising results. Instead of Unity’s traditional 85-90% of the retiree vote, they took about 70% in both those elections. And this one should be closer.

The Numbers

I wrote about the retiree vote before, here. Please note, for 2004 and 2007 I have the vote totals after the cap was applied. That means that the percentages are correct, but the raw numbers were proportionately a bit higher.

Here’s the percents:

Here’s the numbers (remember 2004 and 2007 I have scaled, no actual)

And here are the RTC 2018 and 2021 numbers and percents:

Crucial to understanding, there are 80,000 or so eligible voters. So the 2018 results are something like 19% Unity, 4% Retiree Advocate, 77% not voting. In 2021 we see 20% Unity, 8% Retiree Advocate, 72% not voting. Non-voters became voters, and they did not support the leadership.

What is different?

In the 2021 RTC election and the 2022 UFT-wide election the news about Mulgrew and Unity messing around with our health care was already known. So it is possible that the shift from 15% Retiree Advocate to 30% Retiree Advocate represents all of the change that we will see related to healthcare. The theory might go: “People who were angry enough to switch, switched, and 70% – 30% is the new and permanent reality.” I do not think that theory is correct.

We have two more years of the Unity leadership working with New York City Government, including the Office of Labor Relations – trying to force retirees off of traditional Medicare. We have a series of court cases – all decided against the City government, and indirectly against Mulgrew and Unity. The look – sore losers who won’t stop fighting even though their members are against them and they keep losing – it’s an unattractive look.

We have two more years of Unity losing – which changes the picture. Before news of their backroom deal leaked, they looked invincible. There was a 10-15% protest vote. But they lost 30%. They lost 30% again. They lost a court case. Another. They got blocked in the City Council. Another court loss (and now they are trying to claim it’s not their appeal, it’s the city, but their lawyer is there, Unity is acting like a party, even if they deny it). And another court loss. People who wouldn’t bother opposing them before, figuring “it doesn’t matter, Unity always wins” – now they figure different.

The retiree group that’s been beating the City government is the New York City Organization of Public Service Retirees. The NYCOPSR is independent (of any union, and of city government, and of the bankers and insurance companies and their agents). They have quite a following among UFT Retirees. They look like winners while Mulgrew looks like a loser. The NYCOPSR has urged UFT retirees to support Retiree Advocate.

And both sides campaigned differently than in the past. I’ll save that discussion for another post.

How could the votes change?

In 2021, Unity won 16,269 to 6,755. That’s 71% to 29%. But more importantly, that’s a 9514 margin. I’m looking at 2021 because that is an RTC election (the “general” election in 2022 has higher turnout. Apples to apples. But keep an eye on that 9514 margin.

Big thing to consider – before the Medicare Advantage leak in 2021, retirees who voted for Unity in one election probably voted for Unity in every election. Those who voted for an opposition group in one election probably voted for an opposition group in every election. And those who didn’t vote once? They mostly didn’t vote the next time, or the time after that, or the time after that. Voting habits used to be fixed.

Turnout

There are about 85,000 eligible retirees. Less than 30% vote. Or, at least, less than 30% voted up until now. One of the big questions will be turnout.

Notice, from 77% non-voters in 2018, we were down to 72% non-voters in 2021. That was a big jump in turnout, and most of that went for Retiree Advocate.

A huge surge in turnout would be excellent news for Retiree Advocate. Most new voters will vote against Medicare Advantage, against Mulgrew, against Murphy, against Unity. In the last RTC election 23,000 voted. There were 27,000 votes in the last general election. If this time there are 40,000 votes, you don’t need to see the count – Retiree Advocate has won. If there are 35,000, Retiree Advocate has probably won. Look for a total more in the 26,000 – 30,000 range, enough to worry Unity, enough to make it interesting.

Just a note (and I’ll come back to this tomorrow) – when your leadership is counting on low turnout to preserve their power, that’s a good sign you need to get a new leadership.

Demographics

Who is a retiree changes election to election. Some retirees are no longer able to vote, or pass on. But there are new retirees every year.

Those who are older used to vote in higher numbers, and skewed heavily towards Unity (of those who voted). There were fewer opposition voters.

The newer retirees – many fewer of them are retiring with strong Unity loyalty. Some are retiring with strong opposition loyalty.

On demographics alone (losing older loyal voters, replaced by many fewer new retirees who are Unity loyalist), Unity will lose votes. How many? 500? 1000? 1500? That seems high. Let’s say 500 – 1000, knowing that’s just a guess.

Retiree Advocate will lose many fewer older loyal voters (we have fewer), but will replace those with a greater number of recent retirees who are loyalists. How much of a gain? 250? 500? 750? Call it 250 – 750.

Unity minus 750? Retiree Advocate plus 500? But we will have no way to confirm or disprove these numbers. Just guesses.

Shift: Unity voters ➔ non-voters

When the news of the Unity/MLC/Mulgrew/NYC Government backroom Medicare Advantage deal leaked… At that moment, Unity lost voters. That’s a big part of how their traditional 90% fell to 70%. Unity voters, tried and true, election after election – they stopped voting. Those weren’t votes for Retiree Advocate. But 1 vote for Unity becomes 0 votes. That’s a minus one.

But that already happened. Or did it? Notice that from 2018 to 2021 Retiree Advocate gained over 3000 votes. But Unity did not lose votes – in fact they were slightly up. This loss of actual Unity votes has not yet been felt. And we might see it at the vote count.

Are there more Unity voters, between 2021 and today who will stop voting for Unity? I think the answer is “yes” – but it is hard to measure how many. Remember, when the initial shock of the Medicare Advantage deal came out, Mulgrew pushed back hard, and explained to retirees how he knew more than they did. Independents and Retiree Advocate supporters were horrified. But Unity people have been trained to defer to the leadership, and some of them repeated his weak arguments (silver sneakers anyone?)

But after three years of Unity fighting to impose copays, to force retirees into Medicare Advantage, people, even Unity people, see. Claims about the system being broke – when it’s not. Folks notice, even Unity folks. Their solid support may be less solid than it once was.

One bit of evidence? A letter from a retired DR – exclusively to Unity members –

As this RTC election is upon us I am certainly aware of the deep concerns that people have concerning the health care issue. This note is not intended to discuss that issue….

There have been two comments from people that I want to address.

1) I can’t vote for the opposition but I won’t vote for Unity, so I won’t vote at all….

The message? “Please don’t sit out the election.” He only wrote that because Unity people were choosing to sit this one out.

The other part of the message? “Please don’t think about healthcare.” We know why Unity is asking people not to think about Unity’s record…

But there’s more. There have been Unity members for years, silently critical of Unity. There are rivalries, cliques, grievances. People don’t get the promotion they deserve. Incompetence is rewarded. Personal issues are ignored. There is casual indifference to members’ needs, or lack of concern. There are policy issues beyond healthcare – Bad political endorsements. Mistakes in the contract. Situations not addressed. All of this, in a situation where Mulgrew no longer seems invincible, is leading to quiet quitting.

But how many Unity votes are in danger? They have a base of 16,000 (last retiree election) and an expanded group of 19,000 (last general). Forget the extra 3000 – with Medicare Advantage, I don’t think Unity has any hope of regaining those votes. Could they lose 4000 more? Seems like a lot. Could they hold their losses to 500? Seems like way too little. Somewhere between 1000 and 3000? Maybe.

Call that minus 2000 from Unity.

Unity voters switching sides

This is definitely happening – I hear too many reports to ignore. But a ton? Probably not. All of the reasons from the section above – but to switch they would need to have more trust (or contact with) Retiree Advocate – or have definite alignment – could be on health care – could be on the record of some of our leaders (think about Michael Shulman and the work on the UFT Organizing Committee which Unity terminated eight years ago). How many “switchers” could there be? At least a few hundred. 2000 seems like too many. 200? 1000?

I’m saying 500, but that’s just making up a number. Minus 500 from Unity. Plus 500 Retiree Advocate.

NYCOPSR outreach

The New York City Organization of Public Service Retirees has many UFT retirees among its members. Some of them were Unity voters, before the leak. Some were Retiree Advocate voters. Most seem to have been non-voters.

Marianne Pizzitola appealed to NYCOPSR’s UFT members to vote, and to vote for Retiree Advocate. She gave over several segments on her podcast/youtube show to Retiree Advocate leaders. And they, and she, have some serious reach. Worth considering is the high number of previous non-voters they reach.

How successful will her appeal to previous non-voters be? That’s a huge question. NYCOPSR could add 1000 votes – but that seems way too conservative. Could it be 5000? I don’t know.

Call this one plus 3000 for Retiree Advocate. Again, just a guess.

New voters

Retiree Advocate also did outreach! And an important aspect of that was the “Each one, Reach one” campaign. I got my friend to vote. That’s fine. I got another friend to go out and speak to their former colleagues, and spread the word. That’s more votes.

In the process of building this campaign, Retiree Advocate decided to run a full 300 delegates. In the past, we might have run 100, or 150. That’s symbolic. But if we were really contesting the election, which is what we are doing, it would be foolish to do so without a full slate. And as we filled those slots, we used people we already knew. But we also reached out more broadly, and found activists we did not know before. And that broader reach got us to new people whose “each one, reach one” brought in voters (previous non-voters) we had never before encountered.

We definitely activated new voters. 500? Probably more. 1000? more? 2000. Seems high.

And on the Unity side? I’ll write about this in a follow-up post – but they did not campaign for new votes. New voters for Unity will not be a factor in this election. Their numbers will be negligible.

New voters – plus 1000 Retiree Advocate.

The sum of my guesses

Worst case (based on my guesses) for Retiree Advocate: 6755 + 1950 = 8705 for us, 16269 – 1700 = 14,569 for Unity. 37% to 63%. That would be disappointing.

Best case (based on my guesses) for Retiree Advocate: 6755 + 7750 = 14505 for us, 16,269 – 5000 = 11,269 for Unity. 56% – 44%. That would be amazing.

But honestly? I don’t know. I just know that this will be the closest RTC election ever. Stay tuned.